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      关于试析传统行业与电商对赌,花开谁家?网站位置: >> 管理学论文 >> 电子商务论文 >> 浏览文章
      试析传统行业与电商对赌,花开谁家?

      论文导读:的价格冲突。从战略上,马云们必须有本事1 2 下一页

      传统行业与电商对赌,花开谁家?马云们、王健林们、董明珠们先别急着高兴或者彷徨,应该先客观地、专业地深思这么一个理由:从战略上,谁更主动?
        在每一个大转折时期,总会出现一些戏剧性的事件和标志性的人物。如果能透过现象看本质,排除乱象找趋势,我们会发现,娱乐化的表面之下,其实是惊心动魄的。
        新贵挑战新锐
        2012年12月12日,在CCTV中国经济年度人物评选颁奖典礼上,王健林、马云约定10年后,如果电商在中国整个大零售市场份额占50%,王健林给马云1个亿,否则马云给王健林1个亿。2013年12月,在相同的场合,雷军与格力集团董事长董明珠再现同样的场景。对赌内容却是,5年之内,如果小米的营业额超过格力,董明珠输给雷军10亿元,反之亦然。
        两者的相同之处在于,都是传统行业与电商的对赌。不同之处则在于,前者是行业间的,后者是个体间的;前者是商业业态间的,后者是商业模式间的。
        王健林通过商业地产涉足商业,客观上成为中国传统商业的代言人,而马云则是中国电商毫无争议的代言人。董明珠完全有资格代言中国制造业,而雷军经由手机进军家电领域,依靠的则是与传统商业模式迥异的社区化的商业模式,完全可以视其为家电行业一匹具有电商属性的彪悍黑马。
        如果说王健林、董明珠是中国传统行业知名商人中的新锐代表人物,那么马云、雷军则是以互联网起家的新贵。新贵挑战新锐,反映的是两种经济、两种思维的对赌,的确值得关注和玩味。毫无疑问,在中国当前的经济环境下,互联网经济、电商思维既代表着营销创新的方向,也代表着传统经济创新的方向。
        但我只承认目前存在着两种经济、两种思维,并不认为这种现象是一种常态。其最终发展趋势是通过有机结合,形成统一的新型经济形态和新的商业思维。而这个论断,对双方都具有长远作用—对于一个从长期来看一定会走向融合的东西,非要各执一端,是要出大事的。
        争执双方都应该明白:渠道永远是渠道,商业永远是商业,互联网这个工具威力巨大,但想依靠它一统商业世界,做到唯我独尊、唯我独大,可能性是微乎其微的。电商的本质就是用互联网改造传统商业,而且这个改造既是局部的,也是阶段性的。渠道重构,其实是大制造商和电商共同的盛宴。传统经济如果忽略电商,一定会付出巨大的代价;而电商如果夸大自己的威力和能量,也同样会付出巨大代价。
        沃尔玛们够牛,甚至能够影响到一个中等发达国家的GDP,但最终它们仍然得与其他产业共生,它们能够盘剥的并非整个制造业,不得不与拥有话语权的知名品牌达成双赢。商业世界是有其自身规律的,传统产业是社会经济的基础,它没有沦为商超的附庸,也不可能沦为互联网企业的附庸。电商目前是掌握在新锐们的手中,而最终掌握在谁的手中,还没有定论。谁敢说王健林没有可能成为马云地位强有力的竞争者?
        电商的可持续难题
        “马云”不可能牵手“王健林”,但这并非就是马云们的福。
        王健林们不可能轻易地将电商霸主的位置拱手让给马云,而且我也十分相信,马云仅仅是电商目前的霸主,但他还没有能力垄断电商。王健林们通过O2O的方式,反倒有可能把马云们逼到绝路上去。目前的电商,更多的是省钱的途径,它让购物变得更市侩,而不是更优雅。起码是在当前,电商在整个商业的大盘中还是属于小众,而且是大众产品中的小众。而高档产品及其顾客,目前仍然掌握在王健林、董明珠们的手中。举个不恰当的例子,就像香港目前表面看起来挺热闹的“占中”行动,其实只是部分小青年在那里闹腾。如果有钱的、有地位的和占主流的普通市民不参与,那帮娃娃能够闹腾出什么名堂?
        制造商们不大可能都去建商场做商人,但是他们都必须“触电”,这是马云们面对的最大威胁。当年商超动了制造商的奶酪,却没有遭到大制造商的反击,而这次谁能说不是大制造商的机会?制造商们完全有能力摇身一变,成为电商。那些没有工厂的世界品牌,想成为电商,不是一件十分困难的事情,中国制造商中的大品牌,把视野放得更开阔些,一跃成为垂直电商,也不是一件不可能的事情。
        与发达国家相比,中国电商之所以来势汹汹,理由有两个:
        一是中国虽然整体上步入小康社会,但老百姓真正的购买力并不强。追求性价比仍然是中国主流消费的典型特征。而在这个时候,制造商正在努力提升品质、价格,进行所谓的营销升级,并让目标群体感受到了压力。电商恰恰是抓住了这一点,顺应了这个需求。
        二是中国存在庞大的制造能力,且由于产能过剩,一旦薄利能够多销,它们就会蜂拥而至,不惜饮鸩止渴。电商也抓住了这一点。
        但即便如此,电商仍然难以据此获得可持续发展。
        首先,网购者要求的不仅仅是价格低,而是物美价廉。而在今天,这已经很难实现。一线城市、二线城市和农村市场有着不一样的物美价廉标准。情况可能是,在农村市场甚至二线城市看来不错,在一线城市已经是低档产品了。同时,电商那种疯狂的促销,也使得制造商无法提供让顾客满意的产品了。批发市场曾经生意兴隆,今天却萧条了,这大概是一个理由——那里便宜是便宜了,但假冒伪劣什么东西都有。
        其次,过剩的产能就是过剩的产能,它不会因为有了电商,就不再过剩。与主流制造商相比,这些产能无疑是落后的。即使是抓住这些产能,电商最终会给消费者以什么形象?如果电商一味地在这里打转,那也是饮鸩止渴。
        最后,中国的产业升级、产品升级、消费升级是方向和趋势,一切与此相抵触的,即使火爆,也是难以持久的。自称代表中国最先进生产力的电商是顺应潮流,站在潮头,还是反其道而行之?这不是个经营理由,而是个战略理由。
        看看今天的商超,电商应该知道,想成为主流,要么必须把这些产品、品牌抓到手里,要么就得去培育这样的品牌和产品。
        反过来,今天的王健林们正在经营这样的产品和品牌,大制造商正在生产这样的产品,把持着这些品牌。因此,马云们、王健林们、董明珠们先别急着高兴或者彷徨,应该先客观地、专业地深思这么一个理由:从战略上,谁更主动?给几位大佬的忠告
        下面是我的判断和倡议,正确与否留待未来检验吧:
        1.马云们的正确方向是,从策略上,力争把王健林们的供应商争取过来,而最有效的手段就是防止造成它们线上线下的价格冲突。从战略上,马云们必须有本事 全文地址:http://www.abcanuncios.com/dzswlw/lw49901.html
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