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      关于有关于我国出口贸易依存度实证网站位置: >> 经济论文 >> 国际贸易论文 >> 浏览文章
      有关于我国出口贸易依存度实证

      论文导读:观点认为的对出口依存度产生正向影响的因素—加工贸易出口额占总出口额的比重作用并不明显! 」丶剩褐泄 贸易依存度 协整检验 科克伦—奥克特两步法  一、引言及文献回顾  外贸依存度的测算策略最早由世界银行等国际性经济组织在二战结束后在其发表的研究报告中提出。当时,为了推动各国市场的开放,世界银行等国际性

      中国出口贸易依存度实证分析摘要:文章以GDP中第三产业的比重,加工贸易出口额占总出口额的比重和汇率比价为解释变量,分析了它们对1981—2011年我国出口依存度的影响。结果表明:GDP中第三产业的比重越高,汇率比价越大,出口依存度越高。而传统观点认为的对出口依存度产生正向影响的因素—加工贸易出口额占总出口额的比重作用并不明显。
        关键词:中国 贸易依存度 协整检验 科克伦—奥克特两步法
        一、引言及文献回顾
        外贸依存度的测算策略最早由世界银行等国际性经济组织在二战结束后在其发表的研究报告中提出。当时,为了推动各国市场的开放,世界银行等国际性经济组织纷纷在其研究报告中列入有关对外贸易依存度和跨国比较的内容。当时的测算策略主要是采用比率法, 即一国商品对外贸易额占该国国内生产总值(GDP)的比值(即传统的比率法)。但是很快人们便开始注意到对外贸易比率法在实证分析中的局限性。著名经济学家钱纳里发现,对于人口较多的国家,对外贸易比率普遍较低;而库兹涅茨(S. Kuznets)则从统计学的角度指出,对外贸易比率与国家的国民收入之间存在负相关关系。因此,对外贸易比率法并不能真实反映一国的贸易开放程度;蛘咚,只有在诸如人均 GDP、经济地理位置、人口规模等因素相近的国家之间,以对外贸易比率法度量贸易开放度和进行跨国比较才有作用。
        此后,从20世纪60—70年代起,围绕贸易开放度的度量策略,国内外涌现了许多新看法和观点。主要有两类:一是对比率法作局部调整和修改,如强调用购买力平价汇率(PPP)计算各国GDP,以减少因名义汇率扭曲所造成的影响等,国内的学者如许统生(2003)提出了修正比率法,沈利生(2003)提出了总活动法; 二是认为度量贸易依存度应立足于贸易政策,不仅要度量关税措施,而且要度量非关税措施。九十年代后出现的度量贸易开放度的策略包括指标法和回归方程法,前者分别有道拉斯(Dollars,1992)、萨克斯(Sachs)和瓦诺(Warner) (1995),以及爱德华兹(Edwards,1989)所提出的三种观点,后者包括 Harrison (1996)回归法、Patrick (1998) 回归法等。
        需要指出的是,指标法旨在修正贸易依存度的可比性(包括横向和纵向比较),使该指标更精确。但对于影响贸易依存度的因素缺乏定量分析。从这个角度上讲,本文认为回归方程法更有利于认清贸易依存度的本质和影响它的内在因素。因此,本文拟采用实证回归策略来研究中国贸易依存度。Patrick(1998)回归法选取了GDP(包括一次项和平方项)、各国人口数以及人均GDP的平方作为解释变量,来考察各国的贸易依存度并进行国际横向比较。本文研究的是中国出口贸易依存度,并无国际横向比较的需要,因此,在变量选取时不考虑我国的人口数。段小检(2006)选取汇率(人民币对日元)、外商直接投资(FDI)和GDP作为解释变量,利用OLS对1985—2004年我国外贸依存度进行了实证分析。综合来看,汇率、GDP和加工贸易的比重大小可能是影响我国出口贸易依存度的关键因素,因此本文选取了与它们直接相关联的三个指标。另外,本文的被解释变量是中国出口贸易依存度,而没有采用通常的贸易依存度(一般来说,贸易依存度等于出口依存度和进口依存度之和)。
        二、数据来源及说明
       。ㄒ唬┕谏苤担℅DP)
        文中所用的GDP数据并未进行物价指数处理,理由是:因变量(出口依存度)和自变量(服务业占GDP的比例,加工贸易出口额占总贸易出口额的比例)都是比率形式。价格指数对分子分母的影响是同步的。采用比率形式可以不受价格指数波动的影响。另外一个考虑是,GDP的国际横向比较是需要进行物价调整及汇率调整的,本文不需要进行GDP或者出口贸易依存度的横向国际比较,因此不需要进行物价指数调整。
       。ǘ┘庸っ骋锥罴凹庸っ骋壮隹诙
        加工贸易与一般贸易不同,主要表现在:在进口环节中,加工贸易进口的多为原材料、中间产品等,进口的目的是为了在国内加工后再出口。而一般贸易进口的多是制成品、最终消费品;在出口环节上,加工贸易的产品在国内的增值部分少,国内的利润只有少量的加工费。而一般贸易出口的产品在国内的增值较多;一般贸易出口属于本国的原产产品,而加工贸易出口在很大程度上属于国外的产品。另外,进行加工贸易的多为外资或三资企业,而进行一般贸易的则多为本国企业。为了考察加工贸易可能存在的对出口依存度的影响,文章将加工贸易中属于出口的部分单列出来,从而剔除加工贸易中属于进口部分的影响。
       。ㄈ┗懵
        本文采用的汇率是采用国家统计年鉴(2012)公布的人民币对美元的年平均汇价(中间价)数据,即所谓的名义汇率。很多学者(如魏建国(2005))认为,在考察汇率对贸易依存度的影响时,应该采用购买力平价汇率(PPP)或实际汇率来分析。对于这点,本文认为,经过PPP调整的过程实际上就是在历年名义汇率的基础上除以某个转换因子(如2001年世界银行公布的转换因子是1.88)。如果各年的汇率都进行这样的调整,最终的汇率指数(当期年份的名义汇率与基期年份的名义汇率相比)和不调整是相同的。另外,沈利生(2005)从另外的角度说明了PPP调整汇率的不适用性。实际汇率也是一个颇具争议的理由,目前还没有统一的计算策略,各种策略所考察的重点不一样,不具有可比性。因此,为了避开卷入这样的争议中,本文也不采用实际汇率数据。
        三、变量的选取和模型设定
       。ㄒ唬┍唤馐捅淞浚撼隹谝来娑龋↙n(EXGDP))
        计算外贸出口依存度(下称出口依存度)采用的公式是:出口依存度(Exgdp)=出口贸易额/GDP。出口贸易额和GDP均采用以人民币计算的数据。这些数据都以当年价格计算,两者都不需要进行物价指数调整,理由已在前文说明。为了减少出现异方差的可能性,本文所有变量均采用对数形式。 全文地址:http://www.abcanuncios.com/gjmylw/lw49441.html
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